Between 2001 and 2011 census, India’s urbanization went up from 27.8% to 31.1%. Not only is the number far from impressive, it also makes Panagariya’s predictions way too optimistic. What explains this tepid growth in urbanisation in India?

A recent paper titled Urbanisation, Demographic Transition and the Growth of Cities in India, 1870-2020, authored by Chinmay Tumbe, an assistant professor of economics at IIM-Ahmedabad, gives some useful insights on this issue.

Tumbe argues that India’s urbanization has been both low and slow irrespective of which definition is applied to measure its pace. The 2011 census defines urban areas as settlements with a local urban body and with a population of at least 5,000 people, density of at least 400 people per square km, and at least 75% of the male main working population engaged in non-agricultural activities.

But even if the definition of urban areas were to be relaxed to include all rural areas with a population of more than 10,000, the change in urbanization would remain the same, although the level would increase to 37% for 2011, the paper says.

If the definition were to be further expanded to include all rural areas with population over 5,000, India’s urbanization level would increase to 47% in 2011, but the pace of growth would still be around three percentage points.

In fact, analysis of historical figures from 1870 onwards shows that India’s urbanization pace has slowed down in the recent period.

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The lacklustre environment in India’s construction sector might already have had an adverse effect on employment opportunities for India’s migrant workforce, as was pointed out in another Plainfacts column published last month.

Tumbe’s paper goes beyond the issue of seasonal employment in urban areas limiting India’s rural transformation. He argues that migration from India’s rural areas has always had a gender bias and male workers leave their families in rural areas to look for employment opportunities in urban areas.