With experts predicting widespread autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption in the not-too-distant-future, many policymakers, designers, and ordinary citizens are left scratching their heads, uncertain of what to expect and how to prepare.

We asked John Eddy, who leads Arup’s research into the impact of AVs on the built environment, and Ryan Falconer, head of the firm’s Canadian transportation consulting business, to stage a mock debate about the risks and rewards of a driverless future.

Let’s start with active transportation. John, will AVs make our cities better for pedestrians and cyclists? How will they encourage people to get out of cars and use active transportation, universally acknowledged to be better from the standpoint of public health and greenhouse gas emissions?

John: There’s no question we’ll be able to create a much safer environment for active travel. Shared autonomous vehicles will need less parking and road space than today’s cars, so we’ll be able to devote more space to pedestrians and cyclists. And although the price of car rides should drop with driverless cars, I don’t think that’s going to stop people from using active transportation. There are multiple reasons why somebody walks or rides a bike, and a lot of it comes down to personal preference.

Ryan: I think the convenience of autonomous vehicles will disincentivize people from using active transit. I’ll link that very strongly to one of the points we’ll get to momentarily: sprawl, which will discourage people from taking active transport because of the travel distances involved.

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John: The interesting thing is that the discussion about policy has already started, though. I do believe there is an opportunity to get ahead of it and test different pricing options to appropriately acknowledge the full cost of transportation.

Ryan: I’ll say one thing — there’s a stark difference between omnipotent governance and actual governance. The drop in your property value because of a new policy is a very tough thing to swallow. Politicians won’t want to anger voters across entire geographical regions.

And finally, social equity. Will driverless cars make the divide between rich and poor in our cities better or worse?

John: San Francisco’s highest auto ownership rates occur in some of the more economically challenged neighborhoods. There are a variety of reasons for that, not the least of which is less-than-ideal access to public transit in those areas.

Let’s say you work nights and buses in your area run very infrequently between midnight and 6am. Buying a car might be your most attractive option, although the cost amounts to a significant percentage of your income. Having access to a low-cost automated ride whenever you need it could improve your quality of life.

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