Four in every five U.S. consumers makes online purchases (Pew 2016), and nearly 40 percent of those online shoppers buy something on Amazon at least once a month (Marist 2018). That tendency impacts the built environment, but perhaps not as severely as often thought. “The internet shopping trend has magnified what I believe is a market oversaturation with retail space,” Moffitt says. In other words, a trend that was already underway has been exacerbated.12

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Those locations are now “the most desirable from a retail real estate perspective,” Rakow says. “They command fairly high rents and have lower vacancy.” This trend bodes well for urban locations and less so for postwar suburban areas that lack the dense fabric of a main street or commercial corridor.

At the end of the day, Amazon and the acceleration of e-commerce still account for only about 10 to 11 percent of retail sales (USDC 2019). CBRE expects that market share to grow to just over 15 percent by 2022 (CBRE 2019). Meanwhile, Walmart’s big-box stores on the urban fringe continue to thrive, even as cities reinvest in their downtowns. As customer proclivities and technologies evolve, few can predict what the retail landscape might look like 10 or 20 years from now. But one thing is certain, as municipal leaders in Bangor, Sheboygan, Chapel Hill, and many other communities are discovering: Keeping up with changing retail habits and their impact on fiscal health requires flexibility, creativity, and foresight.

• 1. Moffitt breaks it down to simple supply and demand. “In a given 10-mile radius, there are only so many discretionary dollars available to spend,” he says. “Those dollars either go to brick and mortar or go online. If some of those are going online out of convenience, what’s going to happen is those online sales are going to cannibalize a local brick and mortar store [selling the same types of products].”
• 2. But Moffitt says retail is far from dead. He points out that U.S. retail real estate currently sits at over 95 percent occupancy, which is even higher than at the 2007 peak before the Great Recession. New retail space continues to be built out and leased. And the future eaters and drinkers at Colin Creek Mall represent another truism about the changing retail landscape, per Moffitt: “There’s a lot of stuff you don’t buy on Amazon.” Bars, restaurants, hair salons, barbershops, gyms, pet daycare, and yoga studios are all types of retail businesses based on experiences or consumption rather than on goods. They are much better positioned to thrive in the new retail era.For example, London School of Economics professor Lindsay Relihan has studied early adopters of online grocery platforms. In the first two years since switching to some measure of online grocery shopping, those consumers reduce their spending at grocery stores by 4.5 percent but increase their spending at coffee shops by 7.6 percent (Relihan 2017). “Policies that support a transition to service-oriented retail, and the density and accessibility of that retail, are likely to be key to local retail health,” she says. “Transitions are very disruptive in the short run, but I don’t see any reason why fiscal health should necessarily decline in the long run.” Such service-oriented businesses, which rely heavily on foot traffic, tend to be located on main streets and traditional commercial corridors.