The World Bank recently organised a symposium on Dhaka's urban future and planned expansion into the east. The urban policy advocacy at the symposium was driven by what Martin Rama, the WB chief economist for South Asia, encapsulated in this statement: “Whatever happens to Dhaka, happens to Bangladesh.” In other words, if Dhaka fails, Bangladesh fails. Therefore, Dhaka must be properly planned and expanded to shoulder this national burden.

This policy position probably makes sense but it is dangerous.

The broader planning question here is: should we let Dhaka expand more or de-escalate its growth frenzy? Should we save Dhaka from over-development by investing in other cities of Bangladesh, thus encouraging decentralisation?

It is no news that Dhaka as a megalopolis is creaking at all its urban seams. Traffic congestion is infernal. Even after moderate rains, waterlogging frequently paralyses city life. According to the website Demographia, Dhaka's urban population density is highest in the world at 114,300 people per square mile. On average, 70 people from rural Bangladesh pour into Dhaka every hour in search of jobs and better lives. Over 200 registered motor vehicles enter the city streets every day. Things couldn't be more intense and crowded.

How long can Dhaka keep on growing? Has the city reached its limit? It is time we seriously considered the environmental and social cost of urban expansion ad infinitum.

The World Bank's vision for Dhaka 2035 is understandable. Between 1995 and 2005, there has been a widening gap between demand and supply. Road surface in Dhaka increased by only 5 percent, while population surged by 50 percent and traffic by 134 percent. Qimiao Fan, World Bank Country Director, stated: “Based on current trends, Dhaka will have more than 35 million people by 2035. A productive and liveable city of this scale can make enormous contributions to its citizens and the economy.”

What is implied here is that the capital city's existing land area is insufficient to meet its projected urban demand. Thus, Dhaka's “empty” eastern territory could be the answer. Build the eastern embankment, and “there would be an enormous tract of land which is now flooded.”

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