A new study finds that suburban neighborhoods outperform urban ones across the board.

The trouble is that this picture does not match reality—not by a long shot, according to a detailed new paper published in the journal Urban Studies. Authored by Whitney Airgood-Obrycki of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, it looks at the change in the economic status of urban and suburban neighborhoods from 1970 to 2010, a period that overlaps with notions of the resurgence of America’s urban centers and the decline of its suburbs.

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In contrast to the idea of a Great Inversion—a shift of affluence back to the cities and poverty out to the suburbs—[Whitney] Airgood-Obrycki finds that suburban neighborhoods overwhelmingly outperformed their urban counterparts during the four-decade period spanning 1970 to 2010.

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A slice of suburban Ohio
A slice of suburban Ohio © Peter Baker/Getty Images

Suburban status and neighbourhood change

Whitney Airgood-Obrycki
First Published January 30, 2019 Research Article 
https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098018811724

Abstract: This article examines suburban neighbourhood trajectories from 1970 to 2010 in the 100 most populous metropolitan areas in the US within the context of discussions around suburban decline and reinvestment. A weighted composite index of neighbourhood change indicators was used to identify the relative status of urban and suburban neighbourhoods. Index values were ranked by metropolitan area, and neighbourhoods were assigned to a corresponding quartile. The quartiles formed a status trajectory sequence, categorised as Reduced, Reduced with recovery, Stable or Improved. Neighbourhood trajectories were compared across city and suburb as well as across prewar, postwar, and modern suburban types. Despite increased discussion around suburban decline and suburban poverty, suburban neighbourhoods maintained a higher status than the city, were more likely to recover from reduced status and had higher frequencies of status improvement. The majority of suburban neighbourhoods occupied the highest status ranking in all decades. Stability was the most common trajectory for suburbs, and stable suburban neighbourhoods were higher status than stable urban neighbourhoods. The findings highlight geographies of neighbourhood inequalities and contribute to our understanding of regional and suburban neighbourhood change dynamics.