More than 35 years ago, researchers theorized that graffiti, abandoned buildings, panhandling, and other signs of disorder in neighborhoods create an environment that leads people to commit more crime.

In the "broken windows theory," as it has come to be known, such characteristics convey the message that these places aren't monitored and crime will go unpunished. The theory has led police to crack down on minor crimes with the idea that this will prevent more serious crimes and inspired research on how disorder affects people's health.

Now, Northeastern researchers say they have debunked the "broken windows theory." In research published in the Annual Review of Criminology and in Social Science & Medicine, they have found that disorder in a neighborhood doesn't cause people to break the law, commit more crimes, have a lower opinion of their neighborhoods, or participate in dangerous or unhealthy behavior.

"The body of evidence for the broken windows theory does not stand, in terms of how disorder impacts individuals," said Daniel T. O'Brien, associate professor in the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs and the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Northeastern.

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Daniel T. O'Brien et al. Looking Through Broken Windows: The Impact of Neighborhood Disorder on Aggression and Fear of Crime Is an Artifact of Research Design, Annual Review of Criminology (2018). 

DOI: 10.1146/annurev-criminol-011518-024638

Abstract: Broken windows theory (BWT) has heavily influenced social science and policy over the past 30 years. It posits that disorder in neighborhoods leads to elevated crime by inviting additional criminal activity and by discouraging the positive social behavior that prevents crime. Scholars have debated the veracity of BWT, and here we conduct a meta-analysis of 96 studies to examine the effects of disorder on residents’ (a) general proclivities for aggressive behavior and (b) perceptions of and attitudes toward their neighborhood (e.g., fear of crime), with particular attention to aspects of research design that might confound causal inference. We found no consistent evidence that disorder induces greater aggression or more negative attitudes toward the neighborhood. Studies that found such effects disproportionately utilized weaker research designs that omit key correlates or confound perceptions of disorder with other neighborhood attitudes. We explore implications for theory, research, and policy.

Keywords: broken windows theory, physical disorder, social disorder, neighborhood perceptions, aggression, fear of crime, neighborhood attachment, meta-analysis

Daniel T. O'Brien et al. Broken (windows) theory: A meta-analysis of the evidence for the pathways from neighborhood disorder to resident health outcomes and behaviors, Social Science & Medicine (2018). 

DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.11.015

Highlights

  • Studies of disorder's impact on public health have varied in outcomes and methods.
  • We propose three candidate “pathways” from disorder to diminished health.
  • 198 studies tested one of these pathways or downstream general health.
  • Meta-analysis supported a psychosocial model from disorder to lower mental health.
  • Methodological weaknesses have inflated evidence for broken windows theory.

Abstract: The criminological “broken windows” theory (BWT) has inspired public health researchers to test the impact of neighborhood disorder on an array of residenthealth behaviors and outcomes. This paper identifies and meta-analyzes the evidence for three mechanisms (pathways) by which neighborhood disorder is argued to impact health, accounting for methodological inconsistencies across studies. A search identified 198 studies (152 with sufficient data for meta-analysis) testing any of the three pathways or downstream, general health outcomes. The meta-analysis found that perceived disorder was consistently associated with mental health outcomes, as well as substance abuse, and measures of overall health. This supported the psychosocial model of disadvantage, in which stressful contexts impact mental health and related sequelae. There was no consistent evidence for disorder's impact on physical health or risky behavior. Further examination revealed that support for BWT-related hypotheses has been overstated owing to data censoring and the failure to consistently include critical covariates, like socioeconomic status and collective efficacy. Even where there is evidence that BWT impacts outcomes, it is driven by studies that measured disorder as the perceptionsof the focal individual, potentially conflating pessimism about the neighborhood with mental health.

Keywords: Urban health; Broken windows; Neighborhood disorder; Resident perceptions