The 2010s began with great optimism for urban enthusiasts, with many large U.S. cities displaying high enough growth rates to suggest that it could be “the decade of the city.” But newly released U.S. Census Bureau estimates show that the nation’s large cities experienced uneven growth trajectories over the last decade. In the last several years, many cities registered growth slowdowns and declines while the rest of the country rebounded from the Great Recession and the population dispersed toward suburbs and smaller areas. Some cities grew more rapidly than their surrounding suburbs in the early 2010s, but for many, this is no longer the case.

When the 2020 census results are reported next year, cities’ early-decade growth surge may allow them to register a healthy decade-long growth rate. Yet for most, that growth will have been front-loaded, leaving them stagnating just before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

This analysis focuses on two aspects of city growth. First, it assesses annual changes for the 89 large U.S. cities with populations exceeding 250,000, using the new census estimates for each year between July 2010 and July 2019. Second, the analysis examines city and suburb population growth during this period for major metropolitan areas with populations exceeding 1 million. The final section discusses how the 2010s compare to the previous decade, and speculates on what might be in store for big cities during the post-COVID-19 era.

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