Study rates 50 largest U.S. cities finds marginal evacuation planning improvements

Before Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, evacuation planners rarely considered the needs of carless and vulnerable populations -- low-income, elderly, or young individuals with specific needs or tourists without a car while on vacation. In the aftermath of the storm, transportation planners called for a new focus on evacuation planning to meet these specific needs.

So what has America learned since Hurricane Katrina? Not enough, according to a first-of-its-kind study by Florida Atlantic University, which reveals only marginal improvements with respect to evacuation planning in America's 50 largest cities. Researchers found a lack of preparedness, specifically to evacuate carless and vulnerable populations.1

The 50 cities were scored based on the Composite Evacuation Preparedness Rating System that includes four designations: weak, 0-4 points; moderate, 5-7 points; strong, 8-10 points; and N/A, plans that were not reviewed.

Results of the study, published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, showed that only seven cities had strong plans, including Charlotte, North Carolina; Cleveland; Jacksonville; Miami; New Orleans; New York; and Philadelphia. The researchers note that these plans should be utilized as a model for other cities. Twenty cities achieved a moderate rating, six cities had a weak rating and 17 plans were not available or do not exist. Among the cities with plans not found include Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Minneapolis.

  • 1. The study is based on data extracted from plans, collected and analyzed from the years after Hurricane Katrina and then more recently during the mid-20 teens (prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic). Researchers also introduce an Evacuation Preparedness Rating of five dimensions identified as best practices in evacuation planning for vulnerable populations: special needs registries; specialized transportation plans for individuals with specific needs; pick-up location plan; multimodal evacuation plan; and pedestrian evacuation plan.

John L. Renne, Estefania Mayorga. What has America learned Since Hurricane Katrina? Evaluating evacuation plans for carless and vulnerable populations in 50 large cities across the United States. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022; 80: 103226 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103226

This study reveals that only marginal improvements have occurred with respect to evacuation planning in America's 50 largest cities since Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005. The hurricane revealed a lack of preparedness, specifically to evacuate carless and vulnerable populations. This paper analyzes the state of evacuation planning in America's fifty largest cities in the twenty-teens and compares plans to those in the same cities a decade earlier. The paper also introduces an Evacuation Preparedness Rating System, which includes five dimensions, identified as best practices in evacuation planning for vulnerable populations. The dimensions examine each plan regarding 1. Special needs registries, 2. Specialized transportation plans for individuals with specific needs, 3. Pick-up location plan, 4. Multimodal evacuation plan, and 5. Pedestrian evacuation plan. The paper reports scores for each dimension and then presents a composite score for each city. This research lays the groundwork to guide practitioners and scholars on benchmarking and tracking the effectiveness of emergency evacuation plans across cities and over time with respect to evacuation plans for the most vulnerable members of society.